Dera lomwe lidzakhala ndi vuto lalikulu pakugulitsa kunja mu 2024 ndi Southeast Asia, kotero Southeast Asia imayikidwa patsogolo mu 2025. Pamalo oyamba a LLDPE, LDPE, mawonekedwe a PP, ndi block copolymerization ndi Southeast Asia, mwa kuyankhula kwina, magawo anayi mwa magawo 6 akuluakulu a zinthu za polyolefin ndi Southeast Asia.
Ubwino wake: Kum'mwera chakum'mawa kwa Asia ndi kachigawo kakang'ono kamadzi komwe kamakhala ndi China ndipo kwayamba kale mgwirizano. Mu 1976, ASEAN inasaina Pangano la Amity ndi Cooperation ku Southeast Asia pofuna kulimbikitsa mtendere wosatha, ubwenzi ndi mgwirizano pakati pa mayiko a m'deralo, ndipo dziko la China linagwirizana ndi Panganoli pa October 8, 2003. Ubale wabwino unayala maziko a malonda. Chachiwiri, kum'mwera chakum'maŵa kwa Asia m'zaka zaposachedwa, kupatulapo Vietnam Longshan Petrochemical, zomera zochepa zazikulu za polyolefin zakhala zikugwiritsidwa ntchito, ndipo zikuyembekezeka kukhalabe zotsika m'zaka zingapo zikubwerazi, zomwe zimachepetsa nkhawa za kugawira, ndipo kusiyana kwa zofuna zake kudzakhalapo kwa nthawi yaitali. Kum'mwera chakum'mawa kwa Asia ndi dera lomwe limakondedwa kwambiri pakuchulukitsa kwa malonda aku China, ndikukhazikika kwabwino.
Zoipa: Ngakhale kuti Southeast Asia ikugwirizana bwino ndi China yonse, mikangano yaing'ono ya m'madera ikadali yosapeŵeka. Kwa zaka zambiri, dziko la China lakhala likudzipereka kulimbikitsa Malamulo a Makhalidwe ku South China Sea kuti awonetsetse zofuna zamagulu onse. Chachiwiri, chitetezo cha malonda chikuwonjezeka padziko lonse lapansi, monga Indonesia kumayambiriro kwa December inayamba kufufuza zotsutsana ndi kutaya kwa polypropylene homopolymers kuchokera ku Saudi Arabia, Philippines, South Korea, Malaysia, China, Singapore, Thailand ndi Vietnam. Kusunthaku, komwe kumapangidwira kuteteza makampani apakhomo komanso pempho lamakampani apakhomo, sikungoyang'ana ku China kokha, koma maiko omwe amachokera kunja. Ngakhale sizingalepheretse kutumizidwa kunja, ndizosapeŵeka kuti mitengo ya kunja itsitsidwe pang'onopang'ono, ndipo dziko la China liyeneranso kukhala tcheru ndi kafukufuku wotsutsa kutaya ku Indonesia mu 2025.
Tanena pamwambapa kuti anayi mwa magulu asanu ndi limodzi apamwamba a zinthu za polyolefin amakhala ku Southeast Asia, pomwe zinthu ziwiri zotsalira zomwe zili m'malo oyamba ndi Africa, kopita komwe kuli anthu ambiri otumiza kunja kwa HDPE, ndi kumpoto chakum'mawa kwa Asia, komwe kuli ndi mitundu yambiri yamitundu ina ya PP. Komabe, poyerekeza ndi kumpoto chakum'mawa kwa Asia, Africa ili pamalo achiwiri a LDPE ndi block copolymerization. Choncho olembawo adayika Africa yachiwiri pamndandanda wazinthu zofunika kwambiri.
Ubwino: Ndizodziwika bwino kuti China ili ndi mgwirizano wozama wa mgwirizano ndi Africa, ndipo yabwera mobwerezabwereza kuthandiza Africa. China ndi Africa zimachitcha kuti mgwirizano wokhazikika wa mgwirizano, womwe uli ndi maziko ozama a ubwenzi. Monga tafotokozera pamwambapa, chitetezo cha malonda chikuwonjezeka padziko lonse lapansi, panthawiyi, ndizotheka kwambiri kuti Africa sichidzatsata maulendo a Kumadzulo kuti achitepo kanthu motsutsana ndi China, ndipo ponena za momwe akufunira komanso zofuna zake, sizigwirizana ndi kukhazikitsidwa kwa njira zoterezi pakalipano. Kuchuluka kwa ma polypropylene ku Africa pano kuli matani 2.21 miliyoni pachaka, kuphatikiza matani 830,000 pachaka ku Nigeria omwe adabwera chaka chino. Polyethylene kupanga mphamvu matani 1.8 miliyoni/chaka, amene HDPE okwana matani 838,000/chaka. Poyerekeza ndi momwe zinthu zilili ku Indonesia, mphamvu yopangira PP ku Africa ndi nthawi 2.36 yokha ya Indonesia, koma chiwerengero cha anthu ndi pafupifupi 5 nthawi ya Indonesia, koma ndiyenera kutchula kuti umphawi wa ku Africa ndi wokwera kwambiri poyerekeza ndi Indonesia, ndipo mphamvu yogwiritsira ntchito imachepetsedwa mwachibadwa. Koma pamapeto pake, akadali msika wokhala ndi kuthekera kwakukulu.
Zoipa: Makampani opanga mabanki aku Africa sanapangidwe, ndipo njira zogulitsira ndizochepa. Nthawi zonse pali mbali ziwiri pa ndalama iliyonse, ndipo ubwino wa Africa ndi zovuta zake, chifukwa tsogolo lamtsogolo likufunikabe nthawi yotsimikizira, koma zomwe zikuchitika panopa zimakhala zochepa, monga momwe tafotokozera pamwambapa palinso mphamvu zosakwanira zogwiritsira ntchito. Ndipo Africa imaitanitsa zambiri kuchokera ku Middle East, kusiya dziko lathu ndi mwayi wochepa. Kachiwiri, chifukwa chakuchepa kwa Africa kuthana ndi zinyalala za pulasitiki, kwazaka zambiri, mayiko ambiri apereka ziletso zapulasitiki ndi zoletsa. Pakali pano, mayiko 34 aletsa matumba apulasitiki ogwiritsidwa ntchito kamodzi.
Ku South America, China makamaka imatumiza kunja kwa polypropylene, mumayendedwe otumiza kunja kuyambira Januware mpaka Okutobala chaka chino, South America ili m'malo achiwiri a PP yotumiza kunja, malo achitatu amitundu ina ya PP yotumiza kunja, ndi malo achitatu a block copolymerization. Mu polypropylene zotumiza kunja zili pakati pa atatu apamwamba. Zitha kuwoneka kuti South America ili ndi udindo pakutumiza kunja kwa polypropylene ku China.
Ubwino: Mayiko aku South America ndi China ali pafupifupi palibe zotsutsana kwambiri otsala mbiri, China ndi Brazil mu ulimi ndi wobiriwira mphamvu mgwirizano akuchulukirachulukira, South America mnzawo waukulu United States kuyambira Lipenga analowa ulamuliro kukakamiza tariffs pa katundu wapadziko lonse anachititsanso chisokonezo china mu malonda South America ndi malonda ake. Ntchito ya maiko aku South America kuti agwirizane ndi dziko lathu ikuchulukiranso tsiku ndi tsiku. Kachiwiri, pafupifupi mtengo wamsika ku South America ndi wokwera kuposa mtengo wamsika wanthawi zonse m'dziko lathu kwa nthawi yayitali, ndipo pali mipata yayikulu yama Windows arbitrage omwe ali ndi phindu lalikulu.
Zoipa: Mofanana ndi Southeast Asia, South America ilinso ndi chitetezo cha malonda, ndipo chaka chino dziko la Brazil linatsogola pakukhazikitsa mitengo yamtengo wapatali pa polyolefin yotumizidwa kunja kuchokera ku 12.6% mpaka 20%. Cholinga cha Brazil ndi chimodzimodzi ndi cha Indonesia, kuteteza makampani ake. Chachiwiri, China ndi Brazil, kum'mawa ndi kumadzulo ndi kumpoto ndi kum'mwera kwa zigawo ziwiri zazambirira, ulendo wautali, ngalawa yaitali. Nthawi zambiri zimatenga masiku 25-30 kuyenda kuchokera kugombe lakumadzulo kwa South America kupita ku China, ndi masiku 30-35 kuchokera kugombe lakum'mawa kwa South America kupita ku China. Choncho, zenera lotumiza kunja limakhudzidwa kwambiri ndi katundu wapanyanja. Mpikisanowu ndi wamphamvu mofanana, motsogoleredwa ndi United States ndi Canada, kutsatiridwa ndi Middle East ndi South Korea.
Ngakhale akonzi amalemba osati mphamvu zokha komanso zofooka za madera akuluakulu otumiza kunja, amawalembabe ngati madera apamwamba a chiyembekezo. Chifukwa chimodzi chofunikira chimachokera ku mbiri yakale yotumiza katundu kuchokera chaka chatha komanso zaka zaposachedwa. Deta yofunikira, pamlingo wina, imayimira zochitika zenizeni, ndipo ndi njira yayitali kuti kusintha kofunikira kuchitike. Ngati zinthu ziyenera kusinthidwa pakapita nthawi yochepa, mkonzi akukhulupirira kuti zotsatirazi ziyenera kukwaniritsidwa:
1) Mikangano yachiwawa m'derali, kuphatikizapo koma osati kokha kuphulika kwa nkhondo yotentha, kukwera kwa malonda a isolationism ndi zina zovuta.
2) Zosintha zazikuluzikulu zomwe zimaperekedwa m'derali zidzasinthiratu kupezeka ndi kufunikira, koma izi sizingakwaniritsidwe kwakanthawi kochepa. Nthawi zambiri zimatenga nthawi yayitali kuchokera pakupanga koyamba mpaka kufalikira kwazinthu zonse pamsika.
3) Chitetezo cha malonda ndi zoletsa zamitengo zimangolunjika ku China. Mosiyana ndi zomwe zachitika ku Indonesia ndi ku Brazil, ngati mitengoyo imangoyang'aniridwa ndi zinthu zaku China zokha, m'malo motengera zinthu zonse, monga Indonesia ndi Brazil zachitira chaka chino, ndiye kuti zogulitsa zaku China zidzakhudzidwa, ndipo katundu adzasamutsidwa pakati pa zigawo.
Izi ndizowopsa kwambiri pamalonda apadziko lonse lapansi masiku ano. Ngakhale kuti zomwe zili pamwambazi sizinakwaniritsidwe panopa, mgwirizano wapadziko lonse udakali wolumikizana ndipo uyenera kugwiritsidwa ntchito mosiyanasiyana. Koma chitetezo cha malonda ndi mikangano yachigawo zakhala zikuchitika kawirikawiri m'zaka zaposachedwa. Kusamalira ndi kupita patsogolo kwa malo otumiza kunja kuyeneranso kuyang'aniridwa mwachidwi pazachitukuko ndi mwayi m'madera ena.
Nthawi yotumiza: Dec-20-2024