Chigawo chomwe chidzakhale ndi katundu wochuluka wotumizidwa kunja mu 2024 ndi Southeast Asia, kotero Southeast Asia ikuyikidwa patsogolo mu 2025. Mu mndandanda wa katundu wotumizidwa kunja m'chigawo mu 2024, malo oyamba a LLDPE, LDPE, PP, ndi block copolymerization ndi Southeast Asia, mwa kuyankhula kwina, malo oyamba otumizira kunja kwa magulu 4 mwa 6 akuluakulu a zinthu za polyolefin ndi Southeast Asia.
Ubwino: Southeast Asia ndi dera lamadzi ndi China ndipo lili ndi mbiri yayitali yogwirizana. Mu 1976, ASEAN idasaina Pangano la Ubwenzi ndi Mgwirizano ku Southeast Asia kuti ilimbikitse mtendere wokhazikika, ubwenzi ndi mgwirizano pakati pa mayiko omwe ali m'derali, ndipo China idalowa nawo Panganoli pa Okutobala 8, 2003. Ubale wabwino unakhazikitsa maziko a malonda. Chachiwiri, ku Southeast Asia m'zaka zaposachedwa, kupatula Vietnam Longshan Petrochemical, mafakitale ochepa akuluakulu a polyolefin ayikidwa mu kupanga, ndipo akuyembekezeka kukhalabe otsika m'zaka zingapo zikubwerazi, zomwe zimachepetsa nkhawa zopezera zinthu, ndipo kusiyana kwa kufunikira kwake kudzakhalapo kwa nthawi yayitali. Southeast Asia ndi dera lomwe limakondedwa kwambiri kuti amalonda aku China awonjezere katundu wawo, ndi kukhazikika kwabwino.
Zoyipa: Ngakhale kuti Southeast Asia ili paubwenzi wabwino ndi China yonse, mikangano yaing'ono m'madera akadali yosapeweka. Kwa zaka zambiri, China yakhala ikudzipereka kukweza Malamulo Oyendetsera Dziko ku South China Sea kuti zitsimikizire kuti zofuna za onse zikugwirizana. Chachiwiri, chitetezo cha malonda chikukwera padziko lonse lapansi, monga Indonesia kumayambiriro kwa Disembala idayambitsa kafukufuku wotsutsana ndi kutaya zinyalala motsutsana ndi ma polypropylene homopolymers ochokera ku Saudi Arabia, Philippines, South Korea, Malaysia, China, Singapore, Thailand ndi Vietnam. Kusinthaku, komwe cholinga chake ndi kuteteza makampani am'nyumba komanso popempha makampani am'nyumba, sikulunjika ku China kokha, komanso mayiko omwe amayambitsa kutumiza zinthu kunja. Ngakhale sikungalepheretse kwathunthu kutumiza zinthu kunja, n'kosapeweka kuti mitengo yotumizira zinthu kunja idzachepetsedwa pamlingo winawake, ndipo China iyeneranso kukhala maso pankhani yofufuza za kupewa kutaya zinyalala ku Indonesia mu 2025.
Tanena pamwambapa kuti magulu anayi mwa asanu ndi limodzi apamwamba a zinthu za polyolefin ali ku Southeast Asia, pomwe zinthu ziwiri zotsalazo zili pamalo oyamba ndi Africa, komwe kuli malo ambiri otumizira zinthu za HDPE, ndi Northeast Asia, komwe kuli malo ambiri otumizira zinthu za PP. Komabe, poyerekeza ndi Northeast Asia, Africa ili pamalo achiwiri pa LDPE ndi block copolymerization. Chifukwa chake, akonzi adayika Africa pamalo achiwiri pamndandanda wa madera ofunikira.
Ubwino: N'zodziwika bwino kuti China ili ndi mgwirizano waukulu ndi Africa, ndipo yakhala ikuthandiza Africa mobwerezabwereza. China ndi Africa zimati ndi mgwirizano wathunthu, womwe uli ndi maziko olimba a ubwenzi. Monga tafotokozera pamwambapa, chitetezo cha malonda chikukwera padziko lonse lapansi, pakadali pano, ndizotheka kwambiri kuti Africa sidzatsatira liwiro la Kumadzulo kuti ichitepo kanthu motsutsana ndi China, ndipo pankhani ya momwe zinthu zilili komanso momwe zimafunira, sizikuthandizira kukhazikitsa njira zotere pakadali pano. Mphamvu yopangira polypropylene ku Africa pakadali pano ili pa matani 2.21 miliyoni pachaka, kuphatikiza matani 830,000 pachaka ku Nigeria omwe adayamba kugwira ntchito chaka chino. Mphamvu yopangira polyethylene ndi matani 1.8 miliyoni pachaka, omwe HDPE yonse ndi matani 838,000 pachaka. Poyerekeza ndi momwe zinthu zilili ku Indonesia, mphamvu ya PP mu Africa ndi yocheperapo nthawi 2.36 kuposa Indonesia, koma chiwerengero cha anthu ake ndi chocheperapo nthawi 5 kuposa Indonesia, koma ndikofunikira kunena kuti umphawi mu Africa ndi wokwera poyerekeza ndi Indonesia, ndipo mphamvu yogwiritsira ntchito imachepetsedwa mwachibadwa. Koma pamapeto pake, ikadali msika wokhala ndi kuthekera kwakukulu.
Zoyipa: Makampani a mabanki aku Africa sanapangidwe, ndipo njira zothetsera mavuto ndi zochepa. Nthawi zonse pali mbali ziwiri za ndalama iliyonse, ndipo zabwino za Africa ndi zoyipa zake, chifukwa kuthekera kwamtsogolo kukufunikabe nthawi kuti zitsimikizire, koma kufunikira komwe kulipo pakadali pano ndi kochepa, monga tafotokozera pamwambapa pakadalibe mphamvu yogwiritsira ntchito. Ndipo Africa imatumiza zambiri kuchokera ku Middle East, zomwe zikusiya dziko lathu ndi mwayi wochepa. Kachiwiri, chifukwa cha kuchepa kwa mphamvu ya Africa yothana ndi zinyalala za pulasitiki, kwa zaka zambiri, mayiko ambiri apereka ziletso ndi ziletso za pulasitiki. Pakadali pano, mayiko 34 onse apereka chiletso pa matumba apulasitiki ogwiritsidwa ntchito kamodzi.
Ku South America, China imatumiza polypropylene kwambiri kunja, kuyambira Januwale mpaka Okutobala chaka chino, South America ili pamalo achiwiri pa kutumiza kwa PP koyamba, malo achitatu pa kutumiza kwa mitundu ina ya PP, ndi malo achitatu pa kutumiza kwa block copolymerization. Mu kutumiza kwa polypropylene ndi pakati pa atatu apamwamba. Zikuoneka kuti South America ili ndi malo apamwamba pa kutumiza kwa polypropylene ku China.
Ubwino: Mayiko aku South America ndi China alibe zotsutsana zazikulu zomwe zatsala m'mbiri, China ndi Brazil mu ulimi ndi mgwirizano wa mphamvu zobiriwira zikuchulukirachulukira, mnzake wamkulu wa South America United States kuyambira pomwe Trump adayamba kulamulira kuti akhazikitse misonkho pazinthu zapadziko lonse lapansi adayambitsanso mkangano wina mu malonda aku South America ndi malonda ake. Cholinga cha mayiko aku South America chogwirizana ndi dziko lathu chikukweranso tsiku ndi tsiku. Kachiwiri, mtengo wapakati pamsika ku South America ndi wokwera kuposa mtengo wapakati pamsika mdziko lathu kwa nthawi yayitali, ndipo pali mwayi waukulu wa arbitrage Windows yachigawo yokhala ndi phindu lalikulu.
Zoyipa: Monga Southeast Asia, South America ilinso ndi chitetezo cha malonda, ndipo chaka chino Brazil idatsogolera pakukhazikitsa misonkho pa polyolefin yochokera kunja kuchokera pa 12.6% mpaka 20%. Cholinga cha Brazil ndi chimodzimodzi ndi cha Indonesia, kuteteza mafakitale ake. Kachiwiri, China ndi Brazil, kum'mawa ndi kumadzulo ndi madera akumpoto ndi kum'mwera kwa sitima ziwirizi, ulendo wautali, wautali. Nthawi zambiri zimatenga masiku 25-30 kuyenda kuchokera kugombe lakumadzulo kwa South America kupita ku China, ndi masiku 30-35 kuyenda kuchokera kugombe lakum'mawa kwa South America kupita ku China. Chifukwa chake, zenera lotumizira kunja limakhudzidwa kwambiri ndi katundu wapanyanja. Mpikisano ndi wamphamvu mofanana, wotsogozedwa ndi United States ndi Canada, kutsatiridwa ndi Middle East ndi South Korea.
Ngakhale olemba nkhani salemba mphamvu zokha komanso zofooka za madera akuluakulu otumiza katundu kunja, amalembabe kuti ndi madera omwe ali ndi chiyembekezo chachikulu. Chifukwa chimodzi chofunikira chimachokera ku deta yakale yotumiza katundu kunja kuchokera chaka chatha komanso zaka zaposachedwa. Deta yoyambira, mpaka pamlingo wina, ikuyimira kuchitika kwa zinthu, ndipo kwenikweni ndi njira yayitali kuti kusintha kwakukulu kuchitike. Ngati vutoli liyenera kusinthidwa mkati mwa nthawi yochepa, mkonziyo akukhulupirira kuti zinthu zotsatirazi ziyenera kukwaniritsidwa:
1) Mikangano yachiwawa m'derali, kuphatikizapo koma osati kokha kubuka kwa nkhondo yotentha, kukwera kwa kudzipatula kwa malonda ndi njira zina zokhwima.
2) Kusintha kwakukulu kwa zinthu zomwe zimapezeka m'madera osiyanasiyana kudzasintha momwe zinthu zilili komanso momwe zinthu zilili, koma izi sizingachitike munthawi yochepa. Nthawi zambiri zimatenga nthawi yayitali kuyambira pakupanga koyamba mpaka kufalikira kwathunthu kwa zinthuzo pamsika.
3) Chitetezo cha malonda ndi zopinga za msonkho zimayang'ana ku China kokha. Mosiyana ndi zomwe zikuchitika ku Indonesia ndi Brazil, ngati msonkhowu umayang'ana kwambiri katundu waku China yekha, osati katundu wonse wochokera kunja, monga momwe Indonesia ndi Brazil zachitira chaka chino, ndiye kuti katundu wochokera ku China adzawonongeka kwambiri, ndipo katundu adzasamutsidwa pakati pa madera.
Mikhalidwe imeneyi ndi yomwe ili pachiwopsezo chachikulu kwambiri pa malonda apadziko lonse lapansi masiku ano. Ngakhale kuti mikhalidwe yomwe ili pamwambapa sinakwaniritsidwe mokwanira pakadali pano, mgwirizano wapadziko lonse lapansi ukugwirizanabe ndipo uyenera kugwiritsidwa ntchito m'njira zosiyanasiyana. Koma chitetezo cha malonda ndi mikangano ya m'madera zakhala zikuchulukirachulukira m'zaka zaposachedwa. Kusamalira ndi kupita patsogolo kwa malo otumizira kunja kuyeneranso kuyang'aniridwa mosamala kuti mudziwe zomwe zikuchitika komanso mwayi womwe ulipo m'madera ena.
Nthawi yotumizira: Disembala-20-2024