Mitengo ya PVC ingafike pa $800 pa tani ngati zinthu zogulitsidwa zipitirirabe - Orbia wa ku Mexico.

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Mitengo ya polyvinyl chloride (PVC) ikhoza kukhazikika pa $800/tonne pakapita nthawi ngati mafuta osakonzedwa akhalabe pamlingo wa $70-90/mgolo, chifukwa kugwedezeka kwa kapangidwe kake komwe kumachitika chifukwa cha nkhondo ya Iran ndikokomera opanga omwe ali ndi maziko amtengo wapatali ku US Gulf Coast monga Orbia, CEO ku Mexico chemicals major adatero Lachitatu.

Sameer Bharadwaj adati ngati mafuta osakonzedwa apitirira $60 pa mbiya, mitengo ya PVC "siingathe" kubwerera ku mtengo wotsika wa $600 pa tani, ngakhale adavomereza kuti mafuta akupitilizabe kupezeka padziko lonse lapansi.

Pofika kumapeto kwa Epulo, mitengo ya PVC inali pafupifupi $750 pa tani. M'mbuyomu Lachitatu, mitengo ya Brent yopanda mafuta inali kugulitsidwa pa $117.55 pa mbiya.

"Chomwe tikuwona tsopano ndi kugwedezeka kwa zinthu zomwe zilipo, ndipo kukwera kwa kuchuluka kwa zinthu zomwe zilipo ndiko kwapangitsa kuti mitengo ya PVC ikwere. PVC ikupezeka mokwanira - vuto si kusowa, koma mtengo wake. Mitengo ndi yokwera chifukwa kuchuluka kwa zinthu zomwe zilipo ndi kokwera. Kumene zikhazikika kumadalira komwe mafuta afika m'miyezi ikubwerayi," adatero Bharadwaj.

"Ngati mafuta osapangidwa bwino apitirira $60 pa mbiya, mitengo yotsika ya $600-700 pa tani singathe kubwerera. Ngati atakhala pamtengo wa $70-90 pa mbiya, mungayembekezere kuti PVC idzakhazikika pafupifupi $800 pa tani pakapita nthawi, zomwe kwenikweni ndi zotsatira zabwino kwa makampaniwa."

"Ndikofunikanso kukumbukira kuti kusiyana kwa kuchuluka kwa ntchito pakati pa pansi ndi pamwamba pa PVC sikokulirapo: malo ogwirira ntchito ali pafupifupi 76% ndipo chiwongola dzanja chili pafupifupi 82-83%," adatero, polankhula ndi atolankhani ndi akatswiri ofufuza za chemical equity Orbia itafalitsa zotsatira zake zachuma kotala loyamba sabata ino.

Wopangamalonda owonjezeka ndi phindumu kotala loyamba, chaka ndi chaka, ndipo yachepetsa kutayika kwake konse pamene ikutsimikiziranso malangizo ake a phindu la 2026 - onani tebulo lomaliza kuti mudziwe zambiri za zachuma.

NKHONDO YACHITIKA BWINO

Ngakhale PVC ikadali yodzaza ndi zinthu zambiri -ndiikupitirira kukhalaimodzi mwa zinthu zogulitsa kunja kwambiri ku Chinamankhwala a petrochemical chifukwa cha kufunikira kochepa mdzikolo - nkhondo ku Middle East yasintha kwathunthu mkhalidwe wa Orbia, womwe PVC ndiye chinthu chachikulu mu mbiri yake.

Kampaniyo inanena kuti pali kusintha kwakukulu mu gawo lake la ma polymer solutions, chifukwa cha kusokonekera kwakukulu kwa opanga PVC aku Asia omwe akupikisana nawo, makamaka opanga ndi opanga aku China omwe ali ndi ethylene ku Japan, South Korea, ndi Taiwan, omwe kuchuluka kwa naphtha wofunikira kwasokonekera kwambiri ndi mkanganowu.

"Zotsatira zake pa kupezeka kwa mafuta, komanso kupezeka kwa naphtha kuchokera ku Middle East, ndi zazikulu kwambiri, poyerekeza ndi opanga PVC aku Asia," adatero Bharadwaj.

"Izi zapangitsa kuti azigwira ntchito pamitengo yotsika. Net-net, chomwe tikuwona ndichakuti kutsetsereka kwa njira yoperekera katundu kwakwera kwambiri, zomwe zapangitsa kuti mitengo ya PVC ikwere kwambiri, ndipo tidzakhala opindula kwambiri ndi zimenezo mu kotala lachiwiri."

CEO adazindikira kuti phindu la Orbia pakupanga kwake - lomwe limachokera kwambiri ku chakudya cha ethane kuchokera ku US Gulf Coast - silinasinthe kwambiri panthawi yankhondo, zomwe zidapangitsa kampaniyo kukhala yotetezeka ku kusokonekera kwa zinthu zomwe zikukhudza opikisana nawo aku Asia.

Ngakhale nkhondoyo itatha posachedwa, iye anati, kuwonongeka kwa zinthu zogulitsa kungatenge nthawi kuti zinthu zisinthe.

"Akatswiri ambiri amanena kuti ngakhale nkhondoyo itatha posachedwa, kusokonekera kwa kayendedwe ka zinthu zomwe zachitika kungatenge miyezi itatu kapena isanu ndi umodzi kuti kuthetsedwe," adatero.